Summary
Ray Dalio lays out his values, his principles, that guide his life and his management philosophy. He has built each of these principles into Bridgewater from the beginning and made sure to hire people who fit into this culture. A fantastic way to approach life that can be translated into any walk of life and/or company culture
Key Takeaways:
Having principles is extremely important because otherwise you have no framework on which to base decisions and events
The most important principles are those which we experience directly and reflect on - not those we are taught or told to accept
Extreme truthfulness - removing filters allows questions, issues, etc. to be raised immediately and answered. Most people/companies are too afraid or filtered to have these types of conversations but this is where growth happens and what separates the goods from the greats
Mistakes are something to look forward to as this is where learning happens. How you approach mistakes is what separates the good from the great
What I got out of it:
I will attempt to live my life by many of these principles. It will serve as a guide for the way I make decisions, approach mistakes, learn and decide which people I want to surround myself with. Without a doubt worth reading and can be found for free, here.
Introduction
Part 1 - purpose and importance of having principles in general
Part 2 - Ray's most fundamental principles that guides everything he does
Part 3- Ray's management principles which are in effect at Bridgewater
Wants us to decide what we want, what is true and what to do about it
Principles are concepts that can be applied over and over again in similar circumstances as distinct from narrow answers to specific questions.
I have thought hard about them, they have worked well for me for many years, and while they have stood up to the scrutiny of the hundreds of smart, skeptical people, I also believe that nothing is certain
The principles that are most valuable to each of us come from our own encounters from reality and our reflections of these encounters, not from being taught or simply accepting other's principles
Part 1 - The Importance of Principles
Principles connect your values to your actions
Without principles you'd be forced to react without thinking about your values and what you want
Holding incompatible principles can lead to conflict between values and actions
Your personal principles will determine your standards of behavior and how you interact with others
Question - What do you value most deeply?
For me, it is love. Somebody who loves regardless of others or their situation
Part 2 - My Most Fundamental Life Principles
In trying to learn how to beat the market, Dalio has learned:
Work for what you want, not what others want you to do
Come up with independent opinions and then stress-test them against the smartest people you can find to see where you're wrong
What he wants most of all for those working with him are to work for yourself, come up with independent opinions, stress-test them, be wary about being overconfident and reflect on the consequences of your decisions and constantly improve
Limit bets to the limited number of things you are confident in
Started investing in commodities future because margins were low, then learned a lot about currency and eventually ran a commodities division on wall street until being fired for insubordination. He then started Bridgewater
What he has learned since starting Bridgewater:
Truth - more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality - is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes
The quality of our lives depends on the quality of the decisions we make
The one quality that those who make the right choice have, it is character - the ability to get one's self to do the difficult things that produce the desired results
Success is nothing more than getting what you want - what is essential is that you are clear about what you want and that you figure out how to get it
Personal evolution is both the greatest accomplishment and the greatest reward
People need meaningful work and meaningful relationships in order to be fulfilled
If you can reflect deeply about your problems, they almost alway shrink or disappear because you almost always find a better way of dealing with them than if you don't face them head on. The more difficult the problem, the more important it is that you think deeply
Those who are most successful are capable of higher level thinking - able to step back and design a "machine" consisting of the right people doing the right things to get what they want
The biggest mistake most people make is not to see themselves and others objectively. If they could get around this, they could live up to their potentials
5 Steps to getting what you want out of life
In the long run, doing the things that will make you successful is a lot easier than being unsuccessful (el flojo trabaja el doble!)
Identifying problems is like finding gems embedded in puzzles; if you solve puzzles you will get the gems that will make your life much better
One of the best ways of arriving at truth is reflecting with others who have opposing views and who share your interest in finding the truth rather than being proven right
Ask yourself what is your biggest weakness that stands in the way of what you want. Successful people find and address these weaknesses, unsuccessful people don't. Important to have people or a team around you who are truthful and caring enough to show you your weaknesses because often it is very hard for us to see our own
Life is like a game where you seek to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving your goals
In order to be happy, we have to be excellent and continue to improve at a surprisingly fast rate. Must be hyperrealistic and hypertruthful for this to happen. Biggest impediment to making this happen is the willingness to face their own mistakes and weaknesses and those of others
True caring means recognizing and successfully dealing with our realities, whatever they are. In no way does caring mean being soft
Part III - My Management Principles
A great company requires both a great culture and great people
If there are too few and/or bad quality feedback loops there will be a decline because you won't identify and deal with the problems that will kill you
The most important difference between great organizations and bad ones is in how well they manage their feedback loops
Ray's ~200 principles:
Trust in truth
Realize you have nothing to fear from truth
Create an environment in which everyone has the right to understand what makes sense and no one has the right to hold a critical opinion without speaking up about it
Be extremely open - leads to truth and trust (don't filter)
Have integrity and demand it from others
Never say anything about a person you wouldn't say to them directly and don't try people without accusing them to their face
Don't let "loyalty" stand in the way of truth and openness
Be radically transparent
Record almost all meeting and share them with all relevant people
Don't tolerate dishonesty
Don't believe it when someone caught being dishonest says they have seen the light and will never do that sort of thing again
Create a culture in which it is OK to make mistakes but unacceptable not to identify, analyze and learn from them
Recognize that effective, innovative thinkers are going to make mistakes
Do not feel bad about your mistakes or those of others. Love them!
Observe the patterns of mistakes to see if they are a product of weaknesses
Do not feel bad about your weaknesses or those of others
Don't worry about looking good - worry about achieving your goals. Most valuable comments are accurate criticisms
Get over "blame" and "credit" and get on with "accurate" and "inaccurate"
Don't depersonalize mistakes. Identifying who made the mistake(s) is essential for learning
Write down your weaknesses and the weaknesses of others to help remember and acknowledge them
When you experience pain, remember to reflect. This is the ultimate time to test yourself to see if you can learn and grow from your pain
Be self-reflective and make sure your people are self-reflective. When experiencing pain, don't revert to fight or flight - reflect
Teach and reinforce the merits of mistake-based learning
The most valuable tool we have for this is the issues log which is aimed at identifying and learning form mistakes
Constantly get in Sync - constantly search for alternative viewpoints
Constantly get in sync about what is true and what to do about it
Talk about "is it true?" and "does it make sense?"
Fight for right
Be assertive and open-minded at the same time
Ask yourself whether you have earned the right to have an opinion
Recognize that you always have the right to have and ask questions
Distinguish open-minded people from closed-minded people
Don't have anything to do with closed-minded, inexperienced people
Be wary of the arrogant intellectual who comments form the stands without having played on the field
Watch out for people who think it's embarrassing not to know
Make sure responsible parties are open-minded about the questions and comments of others
Recognize that conflicts are essential for great relationships because they are the means by which people determine whether their principles are aligned and resolve their differences - don't let the little issues slide as this always results in a big blow up later
Expect more open-minded disagreements at Bridgewater than at most other firms
There is giant untapped potential in disagreement, especially if the disagreement is between two or more thoughtful people
Know when to stop debating and move on to agreeing about what should be done - more important to do the big things well than the small things perfectly
However, when people disagree on the importance of debating something, it should be debated
Recgonize that "there are many good ways to skin a cat"
For dissagreemtns to have a positive effect, people evaluating an individual decision or decision-maker must view the issue within a broader context
Distinguish between idle complaints and complaints that are meant to lead to improvement
Appreciate that open debate is not meant to create rule by referendum
Evaluate whether an issue calls for debate, discussion or teaching
To avoid confusion, make clear which kind of conversation (debate, discussion or teaching) you are having
Communication aimed at getting the best answer should involve the most relevant people
Communication aimed at educating or boosting cohesion should involve a broader set of people than would be needed if the aim were just getting the best answer
Leverage your communication (open e-mails to a FAQ board to be time efficient)
Don't treat all opinions as equally valuable
A hierarchy of merit is not only consistent with a meritocracy of ideas but essential for it
Consider your own and others' "believabilities" - probability that a person's views will be right
Ask yourself whether you have earned the right to have an opinion - it is much more difficult to have an opinion (a proper one at least) than most understand
People who have repeatedly and successfully accomplished the thing in question and have great explanations when probed are most believable. The less of a track record someone has, the more questions they should have and the more experience the more assertive they should be
If someone asks you a question, think first whether you're the responsible party/right person to be answering the question
Spend lavishly on the time and energy you devote to "getting in sync" because it's the best investment you can make
If it is your meeting to run, manage the conversation
Make it clear who the meeting is meant to serve and who is directing the meeting
Make clear what type of communication you are going to have in light of the objectives and priorities - the worst people to choose to have in meetings with you are those who's views align with yours
Lead the discussion by being assertive and open-minded
A small group (3 to 5) of smart, conceptual people seeking the right answers in an open-minded way will generally lead to the best answer
1+1 = 3 - two smart people working together are much more effective than if working alone
Navigate the levels of the conversation clearly
Watch out for "topic slip" - come to a conclusion on a topic before moving on
Enforce the logic of conversations
Worry about substance more than style
Achieve completion in conversations - state the conclusion before moving on
Have someone assigned to maintain notes in meetings and make sure follow-through happens
Be careful not to lose personal responsibility via group decision making
Make sure people don't confuse their right to complain, give advice and debate with the right to make decisions
Recognize that getting in sync is a two-way responsibility
Escalate if you can't get in sync
Recognize the most important decisions you make are who you choose to be responsible party
Remember that almost everything good comes from having great people operating in a great culture
First, match the person to the design
Most importantly, find people who share your values - drive for excellence, truth at all costs, a high sense of ownership and a strong sense of character
Look for people who are willing to look at themselves objectively and have character - what Ray respects most in people
Conceptual thinking and common sense are required in order to assign someone the responsibility for achieving goals (as distinct form tasks)
Recognize that the inevitable party is the person who bears the consequences of what is done
By and large, you will get what you deserve over time
The most important responsible parties are those who are most responsible for the goals, outcomes, and machines (they are those higher in the pyramid)
Choose those who understand the difference between goals and tasks to run things
Recognize that people are built very differently
Think about their very different values, abilities and skills
Understand that each person who works for you is like so that you know what to expect from them
Recognize that the type of person you fit in the job must match the requirements for that job
Use personality assessment tests and quality reflections on experiences to help you identify these differences
Understand that different ways of seeing and thinking make people suitable for different jobs
People are best at the jobs that require what they do well
If you're not naturally good at one type of thinking, it doesn't mean you're precluded from paths that require that type of thinking
Don't hide these differences. Explore them openly with the goal of figuring out how you and your people are built so you can put the right people in the right jobs and clearly assign responsibilities
Remember that people who see things and think one way often have difficulty communicating and relating to people who see things and think another way
Hire right, because the penalties of hiring wrong are huge
Think through what values, abilities and skills you are looking for
Weigh values and abilities more heavily than skills in deciding whom to hire
Write the profile of the person you are looking for into the job description
Select the appropriate people and tests for assessing each of these qualities and compare the results of those assessments to what you've decided is needed for the job
Remember that people tend to pick people like themselves, so pick interviewers who can identify what you are looking for
Understand how to use and interpret personality tests
Pay attention to people's track records
Dig deeply to discover why people did what they did - understanding the why helps you understand that person's values
Recognize that performance in school, while of some value in making assessments doesn't tell you much about whether the person has the values and abilities you are looking for
Ask for past reviews
Check references
Look for people who have lots of great questions
Make sure candidates interview you and Bridgewater
Don't hire people just to fit the first job they will do at Bridgewater, hire people you want to share your life with
Look for people who sparkle, not just "another one of those"
Hear the click: find the right fit between the role and the person
Pay for the person, not for the job
Recognize that no matter how good you are at hiring, there is a high probability that the person you hire will not be the great person you need for the job
Manage as someone who is designing and operating a machine to achieve the goal
Understand the difference between managing, micromanaging and not managing - managing requires you to understand how well your people and designs are working to achieve your goal and then refining this system
Managing the people who report to you should feel like "skiing together"
An excellent skier is probably going to be more critical and a better critic of another skier than a novice skier
Constantly compare your outcomes to your goals
Look down on your machine and yourself within it from the higher level - have the proper perspective
Connect the case at hand to your principles for handling cases of that type
Conduct the discussion at two levels when a problem occurs - the "machine" level discussion of why the machine produced that outcome and the "case at hand" discussion of what to do now about the problem
Don't try to be followed; try to be understood and to understand others
Don't try to control people by giving them orders
Communicate the logic and welcome feedback - explain the principles and logic behind decisions
Clearly assign responsibilities - eliminate any confusion about expectations
Hold people accountable and appreciate them holding you accountable
Distinguish between failures where someone broke their "contract" from ones where there was no contract to begin with
Avoid the "sucked down" phenomenon - when manager gets brought down to do the tasks of a subordinate without acknowledging the problem
Watch out for people who confuse goals and tasks because you can't trust people with responsibilities if they don't understand the goals
Think like an owner, and expect the people you work with to do the same
Force yourself and the people who work for you to do difficult things
Hold yourself and others accountable
Don't worry if your people like you; worry about whether you are helping your people and Bridgewater to be great
Know what you want and stick to it if you believe it's right, even if others want to take you in another direction
Communicate the plan clearly
Have agreed-upon goals and tasks that everyone knows (from the people in the departments to the people outside the departments who oversee them)
Watch out for the unfocused and unproductive "we should...(do something"
Constantly get in sync with your people
Get a "threshold level of understanding"
Avoid staying too distant
Tool - use daily updates as a tool for staying on top of what your people are doing and thinking
Learn confidence in your people - don't presume it
Vary your involvement based on your confidence
Avoid the "theoretical should"
Care about the people who work for you
Logic, reason and common sense must trump everything else in decision making
While logic drives our decisions, feelings are very relevant
escalate when you can't adequately handle your responsibilities, and make sure that the people who work for you do the same
Make sure your people know to be proactive
Tool - an escalation button
Involve the person who is the point of the pyramid when encountering material cross-departmental or cross sub-departmental issues
Probe deep and hard to learn what to expect from your "machine"
Know what your people are like and make sure they do their jobs excellently
Constantly probe the people who report to you and encourage them to probe you
Remind the people you are probing that problems and mistakes are fuel for improvement
Probe the level below the people who work for you
Remember that few people see themselves objectively, so it's important to welcome probing and to probe others
Probe so that you have a good enough understanding of whether problems are likely to occur before they actually do
When a crisis appears to be brewing, contact should be so close that it's extremely unlikely that there will be any surprises
Investigate and let people know you are going to investigate so there are no surprises and they don't take it personally
Don't "pick your battles." Fight them all
Don't let people off the hook
Don't assume that people's answers are correct
Make the probing transparent rather than private
Evaluate people accurately, not "kindly"
Make accurate assessments
Use evaluation tools such as performance surveys, metrics and formal reviews to document all aspects of a person's performance. These will help clarify assessments and communication surrounding them
Maintain "baseball cards" and/or "believability matrixes" for your people - ratings, rankings, credentials, track record
Evaluate employees with the same rigor as your evaluate job candidates
Know what makes your people tick, because people are your most important resource
Recognize that while most people prefer compliments over criticism, there is nothing more valuable than accurate criticisms
Make this discovery process open, evolutionary and iterative
Provide constant, clear and honest feedback and encourage discussion of this feedback
Put your compliments and criticisms into perspective
Remember that convincing people of their strengths is generally much easier than convincing them of their weaknesses
Encourage objective reflection - lots and lots of it
Employee reviews - the goal of a review is to be clear about what the person can and cannot be trusted with and from there "what can I do about it" can be assessed
Understand that you and the people you manage will go through a process of personal evolution
Recognize that your evolution should be relatively rapid and a natural consequence of discovering your strengths and weaknesses; as a result, your career path is not planned at the outset
Remember that the only purpose of looking at what people did is to learn what they are like
Look at patterns of behaviors and don't read too much into any one event
Don't believe that being good or bad at some things means that the person is good or bad at everything
If someone is doing their job poorly, consider whether this is due to inadequate learning (training/experience) or inadequate ability
Remember that when it comes to assessing people, the two biggest mistakes are being overconfident in your assessment and failing to get in sync on that assessment. Don't make those mistakes
Get in sync in a non-hierarchical way regarding assessments
Learn about your people and have them learn about you with very frank conversations about their mistakes and their root causes
Help people through the pain that comes with exploring their weaknesses
Recognize that when you are really in sync with people about weaknesses, whether yours or theirs, they are probably true
Remember that you don't need to get to the point of "beyond a shadow of a doubt" when judging people
Understand that you should be able to learn the most about what a person is like and whether they are a "click" for the job in their first year
Continue assessing people throughout their time at Bridgewater
Train and test people through experiences
Understand that training is really guiding the process of personal evolution
Know that experience creates internalization
Provide constant feedback to put the learning in perspective
Remember that everything is a case study
Teach your people to fish rather than give them fish
Recognize that sometimes it is better to let people make mistakes so that they can learn from them rather than tell them the better decision
When criticizing, try to make helpful suggestions
Learn from success as well as from failure - point out people who are performing a job well so there is a role model to replicate
Know what types of mistakes are acceptable and unacceptable, and don't allow the people who work for you to make the unacceptable ones
Recognize that behavior modification typically takes about 18 months of constant reinforcement
Train people; don't rehabilitate them
A common mistake - training and testing a poor performer to see if he/she can acquire the required skills without simultaneously trying to assess their abilities
After you decide "what's true" (after you figure out what your people are like), think carefully about "what to do about it"
Sort people into other jobs at Bridgewater, or remove them from Bridgewater
When you find that someone is not a good "click" for a job, get them out of it ASAP
Know that it is much worse to keep someone in a job who is not suited for it than it is to fire someone
When people are "without a box," consider whether there is an open box at Bridgewater that would be a better fit. If not, fire them
Do not lower the bar
Know how to perceive problems effectively
Keep in mind the 5-step process explained in Part 2
Recognize that perceiving the problems is the first essential step toward great management
Understand that problems are the fuel for improvement
You need to be able to perceive if things are above the bar (good enough) or below the bar (not good enough) and you need to make sure your people can as well
Don't tolerate badness
"Taste the soup" - try out your product often and analyze it against your vision of what excellent should be
Have as many eyes looking for problems as possible
"Pop the cork"
Hold people accountable for raising their complaints
The people closest to certain jobs probably know them best, or at least have perspectives you need to understand, so those people are essential for creating improvement
To perceive problems, compare how the movie is unfolding relative to your script
Don't use the acronyms "we" and "they," because that masks personal responsibility - use specific names
Be veyr specific about problems; don't start with generalizations
Tool - use the following tools to catch problems - issue logs, metrics, surveys, checklists, outside consultants and inside auditors
The most common reason problems aren't perceived is what I call the "frog in the boiling water" problem - there is a strong tendency to get used to very bad things which would be shocking of seen with fresh eyes
In some cases, people accept unacceptable problems because they are perceived as being too difficult to fix. Yet fixing unacceptable problems is actually a lot easier than not fixing them, because not fixing them will make you miserable
Problems that have good, planned solutions are completely different from those that don't
Diagnose to understand what the problems are symptomatic of
Recognize that all problems are just manifestations of their root causes, so diagnose to understand what the problems are symptomatic of
Understand that diagnosis is foundational both to progress and quality relationships
Ask the following questions when diagnosing:
Ask what suboptimally did you experience?
Is there a clear responsible party for the suboptimality?
Ask responsible party what the "mental map" was supposed to work
Ask what, if anything, broke the situation
Ask why they handled the problem the way they did (root cause is not action or a reaction - it is a reason
Is this consistent with prior patterns?
Remember that a root cause is not an action but a reason
Identify which step failure occurred in the 5-step process
Remember that a proper diagnoses requires a quality, collaborative and honest discussion to get at the truth
Keep in mind that diagnoses should produce outcomes
Don't make too much out of one "dot" - synthesize a richer picture by squeezing lots of "dots" quickly and triangulating with others
Maintain an emerging synthesis by diagnosing continuously
To distinguish between a capacity issue and a capability issue, imagine how the person would perform at that particular function if they had ample capacity
The most common reasons managers fail to produce excellent results or escalate are they are too far removed, have problems discerning quality differences, have lost sight of how bad things have become, too much pride to admit poor work, fear adverse consequences from admitting failure
Avoid "monday morning quarterbacking" - hindsight is always 20/20 - imagine what could have reasonably been known when the decision was made
Identify the principles that were violated
Remember that if you have the same people doing the same things, you should expect the same results
Use the following "drilldown" technique to gain an 80/20 understanding of a department or sub-department that is having problems - list problems and causes/diagnoses, design a plan, execute, monitor and modify the plan. People perform poorly either because of insufficient training or insufficient ability. Your job as a manager to get at truth and excellence, not to make people happy
Put things in perspective
Go back before going forward
Tool - have all new employees listen to tapes of "the story" to bring them up to date
Understand "above the line" and "below the line" thinking and how to navigate between the two
Design your machine to achieve your goals
Remember, you are designing a "machine" or system that will produce outcomes
A short-term goal probably won't require you to build a machine
Beware of paying too much attention to what is coming at you and not enough attention to what your responsibilities are or how your machine should work to achieve your goals
Don't act before thinking. Take the time to come up with a game plan
The organizational design you draw up should minimize problems and maximize capitalization opportunities
Put yourself in the "position of pain" for a while so that you gain a richer understanding of what you're designing for
Recognize that design is an interative process; between a bad "now" and a good "then" is a "working through it" period
Visualize alternative machines and their outcomes, and then choose
Think about second and third-order consequences as well as first-order consequences
Most importantly, build the organization around goals rather than tasks
First come up with the best workflow design, sketch it out in an organizational chart, visualize how the parts interact, specify what qualities are required for each job, and , only after that is done, choose the right people to fill the jobs
Organize departments and sub-departments around the most logical groupings
Make departments as self-sufficient as possible so that they have control over the resources they need to achieve the goals
The efficiency of an organization decreases and the bureaucracy increases in direct relation to the increase in the number of people and/or the complexity of the organization
Build your organization from the top down
Everyone must be overseen by a believable person who has high standards
The people at the top of each pyramid should have the skills and focus to manage their direct reports and a deep understanding of their jobs
The ratio of senior managers to junior managers and to the number of people who work two levels below should be limited, to preserve quality communication and mutual understanding
The number of layers from top to bottom and the ratio of managers to their direct reports will limit the size of an effective organization (about 5 to 1)
The larger the organization, the more important are the information technology expertise in management and cross-departmental communication
Do not build the organization to fit the people
Have the clearest possible delineation of responsibilities and reporting lines
Create an organizational chart to look like a pyramid, with straight lines down that don't cross
Constantly think about how to produce leverage
You should be able to delegate the details away- if not your employees are either badly trained or they are the wrong people - manager should only have to worry about things going smoothly
It is far better to find a few smart people and give them the best technology than to have a greater number of ordinary and less well-equipped people
Use "leveragers"
Understand the clover-leaf design - 2 to 3 responsible parties who are willing to challenge and check each other (more likely to fight for what they believe in and sorting out issues earlier than they otherwise would be)
Don't do work for people in another department or grab people from another department to do work for you unless you speak to the boss
Watch out for "department slip"
Assign responsibilities based on workflow design and people's abilities, not job titles
Watch out for consultant addiction
Tool - maintain a procedure manual
Tool - use checklists
Don't confuse checklists with personal responsibility
Remember that "systematic" doesn't necessarily mean computerized
Use "double-do" rather than "double-check" to make sure mission-critical tasks are done correctly
Watch out for "job slip"
Think clearly how things should go and when they aren't going that way, acknowledge it and investigate
Have good controls so that you are not exposed to the dishonesty of others and trust is never an issue
People doing auditing should report to people outside the department being audited, and auditing procedures should not be made known to those being audited
Remember there is no sense in having laws unless you have policemen (auditors)
Do what you set out to do
Push through! - you must MAKE great things happen
Recognize the power of knowing how to deal with not knowing
Recognize that your goal is to come up with the best answer, that the probability of your having it is small, and that even if you have it, you can't be confident that you do have it unless you have other believable people test you
Understand that the ability to deal with not knowing is far more powerful than knowing
Embrace the power of asking "What don't I know, and what should I do about it?"
Finding the path to success is at least as dependent on coming up with the right questions as coming up with answers
Remember that your goal is to find the best answer, not to give the best one you have
While everyone has the right to have questions and theories, only believable people have the right to have opinions
Constantly worry about what you are missing
Successful people ask for the criticism of others and consider its merit
Triangulate your view - never make important decisions without asking at least 3 believable people and ask them to probe your own reasoning
Make all decisions logically, as expected value calculations
Considering both the probabilities and the payoffs of the consequences, make sure that the probability of the unacceptable (the risk of ruin) is nil
The cost of a bad decision is equal to or greater than the reward of a good decision, so knowing what you don't know is at least as valuable as knowing
Recognize opportunities where there isn't much to lose and a lot to gain, even if the probability of the gain happening is low
Understand how valuable it is to raise the probability that your decision will be right by accurately assessing the probability of your being right
Don't bet too much on anything. Make 15 or more good, uncorrelated bets
Remember the 80/20 Rule, and know what the key 20% is
Distinguish the important things from the unimportant things and deal with the important things first
Don't be a perfectionist
Since 80% of the juice can be gotten with the first 20% of the squeezing, there are relatively few (typically less than five) important things to consider in making a decision
Watch out for "detail anxiety"
Don't mistake small things for unimportant things, because some small things can be very important
Think about the appropriate time to make a decision in light of the marginal gains made by acquiring additional information versus the marginal costs of postponing the decision
Make sure all the "must do's" are above the bar before you do anything else
Remember that the best choices are the ones with more pros than cons, not those that don't have any cons. Watch out for people who tend to argue against something because they can find something wrong with it without properly weighing all the pros against the cons
Watch out for unproductively identifying possibilities without assigning them probabilities, because it screws up prioritization
Understand the concept and use the phrase "by and large"
When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that "it's not totally true," it's probably true enough
Synthesize
Understand and connect the dots
Understand what an acceptable rate of improvement is, and that it is the level and not the rate of change that matters most
If your best solution isn't good enough, think harder or escalate that you can't produce a solution that is good enough
Avoid the temptation to compromise on that which is uncompromisable
Don't try to please everyone
